Definition of the word hot hand

The term "hot hand" refers to a perceived streak of good luck or performance in a particular activity, such as sports or gambling. It is a colloquial expression that originated in basketball, where basketball players are often said to experience "hot hands" during games. This phrase first gained popularity in the 1970s and 1980s when sports commentators used it to describe NBA players who seemed to hit several shots in a row. Although the hype surrounding the "hot hand" concept is prevalent in popular culture, its scientific validity has been challenged by the theory of randomness in statistics. According to the law of large numbers, in the long run, the average outcome will approach the true probability of success. Therefore, in a series of independent trials, the hit rate of an individual will eventually converge with the expected success rate over time, regardless of the previous outcomes. The concept that success breeds success and failure breeds failure, popularly known as the gambler's fallacy, is also a fallacy in statistics. In reality, each event is statistically independent of the previous events, and the hit rate will follow the same probability distribution over time. This realization led statistician Gilovich and his colleagues to coin the term "hot shot" in 1985, which better describes a player's momentary success rather than a prolonged hot streak. In summary, while the terminology of "hot hand" remains popular in sports commentary and popular culture, its scientific validity is debatable, as it does not account for the fundamental principles of statistics and probability.